Tuesday, August 31, 2010

US Stocks Climb, Boosted By Consumer Confidence

By Kristina Peterson


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks erased early losses on Tuesday as a better-than-expected reading of consumer confidence provided some encouragement to investors bracing for slower economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 43 points, reclaiming the 10000 level. Stocks wiped out an early decline, following after consumer confidence increased more than expected in August, raising expectations about future economic activity.

"Housing is continuing to be really weak. The jobs market is the thing the market's most concerned about," said Bill Vaughn, portfolio manager at Evercore Wealth Management, who said the economy still seems to be haltingly improving in a "stair-step" fashion.

"That's a normal pattern whether it's the macro-economy or the market," he said.

Heading into the final day of August, key indexes are on track for a month of steep losses. The Dow has shed nearly 4.1% this month, its first down August in five years. This month is on track to be the blue-chip measure's worst August since 2001.

Small-capitalization stocks have taken an even bigger hit this month. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks is on pace to post its worst August performance in 12 years.

The market weathered mixed housing and manufacturing data earlier in the morning, helping benchmark indexes stay above key support levels. The Standard & Poor's 500-share index rose 0.3% to 1052, after bouncing off the key 1040 level. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% to 2123.

The Dow was recently up 0.3% to 10045, boosted by a 1.9% rise in Caterpillar.

However, technology components weakened after technology researcher Gartner cut its 2010 projection for worldwide personal-computer shipments, saying the second half won't be a strong as it previously expected. Intel fell 0.7%, while Cisco Systems shed 0.2%.

Continuing the buzz around recent deal activity, luxury-fashion retailer Saks rallied 23%. Saks' climb was fueled by speculation that a private-equity consortium is preparing a cash bid of $1.7 billion, or $11 a share, for the retailer, according to the Daily Mail newspaper, citing unidentified sources. A Saks spokesman couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Food-processing company H.J. Heinz rose 1% after projecting first-quarter earnings above analysts' recent views as the food-processing company said results again were driven by emerging markets.

Biotech agribusiness company Monsanto dropped 4.6% after predicting its fiscal-year earnings will come in at the low end of its prior view.

Investors fretting over the pace of the economic recovery have been closely focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy. In the early afternoon, the central bank will release the minutes from the Aug. 10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The U.S. dollar weakened against both the euro and the yen. The euro was trading recently at $1.2724, up from $1.2665 late Monday in New York. Demand for Treasurys was mixed, with the two-year note flat and the 10-year note up to push its yield down to 2.51%. Crude-oil prices edged down, while gold futures advanced.

Mr Obama - Biggest Bad move of the year? I feel you are.

Obama Blows Off 3 Billion Wannabe Billionaires: William Pesek


By William Pesek - Aug 30, 2010 3:00 AM GMT+0800

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William Pesek

For a guy who talked big about re- engaging Asia, Barack Obama has a funny way of showing it.

Nobody doubts the U.S. president’s team is supremely busy juggling oil spills, Muslim cultural centers, convincing ignoramuses he has a birth certificate and averting recession. Yet there’s no excuse for blowing off last week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations trade meeting in Vietnam.

It was a dreadful decision and its significance didn’t escape members of the fourth-biggest market for U.S. goods. This is no time for the U.S. to be taking the most dynamic economies for granted. Not with China becoming an ever-bigger player both in Asia and globally.

On any list of George W. Bush’s failings, ignoring Asia deserves a prominent mention. When his administration bothered with Asia, it was all terrorism all the time. There was little talk about potential, cooperation or partnership. Bush just wanted to know how many bad guys governments were rounding up.

He tried to make amends in the twilight of his presidency, naming a U.S. ambassador to Asean in 2008. Recently, Obama tapped that official, Scot Marciel, to be U.S. ambassador to Indonesia. Obama hasn’t bothered to name a new Asean envoy.

The U.S. missed a timely opportunity last week to confer with the economic ministers of Asean’s 10 members, along with counterparts from Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Russia.

Blowing Off Asia

At a time of global crisis, one the U.S. caused, does Obama really want to be sending a message of indifference to Asia? Coming a week after the announcement that China’s economy has surpassed Japan’s, the U.S.’s closest Asian ally, you would think the White House would be stepping up a charm offensive. Instead, it risks turning off the region.

“Confidence in the United States and its ability to lead and follow through on commitments is based on its economic well- being, and that status is being questioned by friends and competitors alike in Asia,” Ernest Bower, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote in a recent report.

China’s rapid growth is slowly, but surely, chipping away at the U.S.’s importance. Granted, at almost three times China’s economy, the U.S. will long be a vital customer for Asia’s goods. Officials here also know that depending on growth in a developing economy is risky.

U.S. Brand

Yet neglecting future trade ties with the liveliest economies is just plain dumb. Asia is churning out a fast- growing number of billionaires and is home to 3 billion consumers who aspire to join them. The U.S. wants to be in on that process.

Obama must not forget just how much the 2008 meltdown damaged the U.S. brand. During Asia’s 1990s crisis, U.S. officials preached the free-market gospel. They told leaders to raise interest rates to support currencies, slash spending and debt, scrap subsidies and avoid bailing out industries. When the U.S. faced a crisis, it did exactly the opposite.

There’s also considerable grumbling over the dollar. True or not, the theory that the U.S. is devaluing to help exporters is making the rounds. That perception is a problem if you want China to let its currency strengthen. It doesn’t play well in Japan, where panic is rising over the strong yen.

Nor can the U.S. complain about corruption in Asia. Incestuous ties between Washington and Wall Street helped cause the U.S. crisis. Conflicts of interest between regulators and oil companies led to BP Plc’s devastating Gulf of Mexico leak. The U.S. has little moral high ground on dodgy dealings.

Corruption’s Cost

That’s a shame, considering the magnitude of Asia’s corruption fight. In Indonesia, for example, officials face an uphill battle to weed out graft and allow more of the nation’s people to benefit from 6 percent growth.

In the Philippines, the honeymoon enjoyed by Benigno Aquino, since becoming president in June, ended last week in gunfire. Eight Hong Kong tourists being held hostage in Manila died in a botched rescue attempt. The tragedy was emblematic of what plagues the nation’s economy.

The gunman was a former police inspector who was dismissed on allegations of extortion. The standoff’s surreal finale suggested a breakdown in the nation’s security apparatus, ineptness at many levels and weak diplomacy. Corruption is the common link in all these shortcomings.

Lost Opportunity

Obama got off to a good start, becoming the first U.S. leader to meet with Asean in November. Vietnam was the perfect opportunity to go further -- to discuss views on credit markets, North Korea’s provocations, China’s currency, Australia’s election, Russia’s growth prospects, and Japanese deflation.

This last topic is a growing concern. Not only have consumer prices fallen for 17 consecutive months, but Japan now has a leadership battle on its hands. Prime Minister Naoto Kan faces a challenge to remain head of the ruling party by veteran kingmaker Ichiro Ozawa. It’s the last thing Japan needs: its sixth prime minister in three years.

Obama’s team could have learned about all of this, and much more, if it had only shown up in Asia. It should do so as soon as possible.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net