Good Day Everyone,
I have created my own new site MyEduTrade Journey to provide more of my personal experience. Something that I can share using my own creation. Please go to this site, http://www.myedutrade.com/ for more details as I will blog and provides all details at the new site from now on. I would like to say my thanks to everyone for your time in reading and accessing my site.
Thank you.
Thanks
Gabriel
myedutrade.com
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Saturday, September 11, 2010
China to release inflation, factory data during weekend
Rescheduling to Saturday may indicate surprise result with market significance
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China will release August national economic data on Saturday, bringing forward the scheduled release by two days and inciting speculation that the data release could contain unexpected results with market implications.
Monthly figures for industrial output, fixed asset investment, along with consumer and wholesale-price inflation data will be reported on Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The data had been originally scheduled for Monday.
Analysts said China's central bank could be planning an announcement on interest rates before markets open on Monday in response to what could be surging inflation.
Expectations are for inflation to rise above 3.5%, driven partly by higher food prices. That would bring push the return on deposit, current at 2.25%, significantly negative.
China's food prices jumped 6.8% in July from a year earlier, while the overall inflation rose 3.3% from the year-ago period.
Investing in Emerging Markets' Building BoomCompanies that build or maintain infrastructure -- roads, bridges and more -- in China, Brazil and other emerging markets are set to gain in coming years. Aaron Visse of the Forward Global Infrastructure Fund talks with MarketWatch's Jonathan Burton.
A CPI measure hovering near 4% would likely be viewed as temporary owing to surging food prices related to weather-afflicted harvest shortfalls earlier this year, an analyst said.
"I don't think it has [interest rate] policy implications," said Citigroup Global Markets economist Ken Peng in Beijing.
He added there was a "policy-induced downside risk" to industrial production figures for August, after Beijing ordered power supply cuts for heavy-consuming industries earlier this summer.
Chinese demand is considered the global price setter and any sharp decline in output could have consequences for crude oil, copper and other industrial commodities.
Yuan allowed to rise
China's central bank on Friday set the yuan parity rate 6.7625 to the U.S. dollar, a level that represents the strongest for the Chinese currency against the dollar since it was delinked from its peg to the dollar in July 2005. Thursday, the dollar-yuan (USDCNY 6.7930, +0.0045, +0.0663%) parity was set at 6.7817.
In separate release Friday, trade data for August showed that imports continued to rise at a fast clip on strong domestic consumption, resulting in a lower-than-expected monthly trade surplus.
The country's exports rose 34.4% year-on-year to $139.3 billion, against 35% growth expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Imports climbed 35.2% to $119.27 billion, compared to an expected 25% increase. China's trade surplus narrowed to $20.0 billion in August, from $28.7 billion in July. Economists had been expecting a $30.0 billion surplus.
Analysts said the figures showed tightening measures by Beijing earlier this year were helping cool the domestic economy even as external demand remained relatively strong.
"The recent strength in China's exports suggests that the slowdown in Chinese growth that has been evident in the last few months has not been caused by external factors but ...the result of policy decisions made to reduce overheating risks and bring growth down to more sustainable levels," said RBC analyst Brian Jackson in Hong Kong.
He added the $20 billion trade surplus, though below expectations, was high by historical standards.
Other data released Friday showed national house prices rose 9.3% in August, easing from a 10.3% rise on year in July.
Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Hong Kong bureau chief
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China will release August national economic data on Saturday, bringing forward the scheduled release by two days and inciting speculation that the data release could contain unexpected results with market implications.
Monthly figures for industrial output, fixed asset investment, along with consumer and wholesale-price inflation data will be reported on Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The data had been originally scheduled for Monday.
Analysts said China's central bank could be planning an announcement on interest rates before markets open on Monday in response to what could be surging inflation.
Expectations are for inflation to rise above 3.5%, driven partly by higher food prices. That would bring push the return on deposit, current at 2.25%, significantly negative.
China's food prices jumped 6.8% in July from a year earlier, while the overall inflation rose 3.3% from the year-ago period.
Investing in Emerging Markets' Building BoomCompanies that build or maintain infrastructure -- roads, bridges and more -- in China, Brazil and other emerging markets are set to gain in coming years. Aaron Visse of the Forward Global Infrastructure Fund talks with MarketWatch's Jonathan Burton.
A CPI measure hovering near 4% would likely be viewed as temporary owing to surging food prices related to weather-afflicted harvest shortfalls earlier this year, an analyst said.
"I don't think it has [interest rate] policy implications," said Citigroup Global Markets economist Ken Peng in Beijing.
He added there was a "policy-induced downside risk" to industrial production figures for August, after Beijing ordered power supply cuts for heavy-consuming industries earlier this summer.
Chinese demand is considered the global price setter and any sharp decline in output could have consequences for crude oil, copper and other industrial commodities.
Yuan allowed to rise
China's central bank on Friday set the yuan parity rate 6.7625 to the U.S. dollar, a level that represents the strongest for the Chinese currency against the dollar since it was delinked from its peg to the dollar in July 2005. Thursday, the dollar-yuan (USDCNY 6.7930, +0.0045, +0.0663%) parity was set at 6.7817.
In separate release Friday, trade data for August showed that imports continued to rise at a fast clip on strong domestic consumption, resulting in a lower-than-expected monthly trade surplus.
The country's exports rose 34.4% year-on-year to $139.3 billion, against 35% growth expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Imports climbed 35.2% to $119.27 billion, compared to an expected 25% increase. China's trade surplus narrowed to $20.0 billion in August, from $28.7 billion in July. Economists had been expecting a $30.0 billion surplus.
Analysts said the figures showed tightening measures by Beijing earlier this year were helping cool the domestic economy even as external demand remained relatively strong.
"The recent strength in China's exports suggests that the slowdown in Chinese growth that has been evident in the last few months has not been caused by external factors but ...the result of policy decisions made to reduce overheating risks and bring growth down to more sustainable levels," said RBC analyst Brian Jackson in Hong Kong.
He added the $20 billion trade surplus, though below expectations, was high by historical standards.
Other data released Friday showed national house prices rose 9.3% in August, easing from a 10.3% rise on year in July.
Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Hong Kong bureau chief
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Singapore Stocks-Down on losses in telcos, 3,000 support eyed
Reuters - Tuesday, September 7Send IM Story Print
* Index down 0.32 pct, seen in 3,000-3,042 range afternoon
* SingTel, StarHub and M1 drop on fears of new competition
* SingTel falls ahead of announcement on new Australia govt
By Charmian Kok
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 - Singapore shares dropped 0.32 percent, weighed by losses in telcom operators after a newspaper reported the government may allow a fourth mobile phone operator in the city-state.
By the midday break the Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> was down 9.73 points at 3,024.85. More than 131.8 million shares had changed hands.
"Singapore shares are likely to trade sideways later this afternoon, as there's little movement in U.S. futures so far. As the U.S. was on holiday yesterday, the STI is mainly taking its cues from Japan, which is down," said Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research.
The benchmark index is likely to trade with a downward bias in the 3,000-3,042 band, traders said.
Shares of Singapore's three telcom operators fell on Tuesday after the Business Times reported Singapore will auction another third-generation spectrum in November, paving the way for a fourth mobile phone operator. [ID:nSGE68601F]
Singapore Telecommunicationswas also hit by uncertainty ahead of the announcement of Australia's new government, which is expected later Tuesday.
SingTel shares fell 1.6 percent to S$3.06 with 10.5 million shares changing hands, StarHub dropped 2.8 percent, while M1 declined 1.3 percent.
"If the opposition party wins, this may be bad news for SingTel, as the new government may not spend as much on broadband infrastructure in Australia," said a local trader.
Australia's conservative opposition said last month it would scrap the current government's plan to build a high-speed broadband network if it won, which could have negative implications for SingTel's Australian unit Optus. [ID:nSGE67901G]
Singapore-listed casino operator Genting Hong Kongfell 3.4 percent to S$0.425 as investors pared holdings in the firm after its shares surged 47 percent over the last two trading sessions. [ID:nSGE68603U]
* Index down 0.32 pct, seen in 3,000-3,042 range afternoon
* SingTel, StarHub and M1 drop on fears of new competition
* SingTel falls ahead of announcement on new Australia govt
By Charmian Kok
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 - Singapore shares dropped 0.32 percent, weighed by losses in telcom operators after a newspaper reported the government may allow a fourth mobile phone operator in the city-state.
By the midday break the Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> was down 9.73 points at 3,024.85. More than 131.8 million shares had changed hands.
"Singapore shares are likely to trade sideways later this afternoon, as there's little movement in U.S. futures so far. As the U.S. was on holiday yesterday, the STI is mainly taking its cues from Japan, which is down," said Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research.
The benchmark index is likely to trade with a downward bias in the 3,000-3,042 band, traders said.
Shares of Singapore's three telcom operators fell on Tuesday after the Business Times reported Singapore will auction another third-generation spectrum in November, paving the way for a fourth mobile phone operator. [ID:nSGE68601F]
Singapore Telecommunications
SingTel shares fell 1.6 percent to S$3.06 with 10.5 million shares changing hands, StarHub dropped 2.8 percent, while M1 declined 1.3 percent.
"If the opposition party wins, this may be bad news for SingTel, as the new government may not spend as much on broadband infrastructure in Australia," said a local trader.
Australia's conservative opposition said last month it would scrap the current government's plan to build a high-speed broadband network if it won, which could have negative implications for SingTel's Australian unit Optus. [ID:nSGE67901G]
Singapore-listed casino operator Genting Hong Kong
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
HOT STOCK - KIM ENG says SPH - Money Mind
HOT STOCK - KIM ENG says SPH is on course to report a record net profit for FY Aug10 when it announces its full-year results, likely on 12 October. Our page count shows that sales growth in the fourth quarter moderated somewhat, but the Singapore growth story will continue to sustain print advertising demand. Catalysts lie on the property front. BUY with a target price of $4.62. - KIM ENG
HOT STOCK: KIM ENG says Eratat Lifestyle - Money Mind
HOT STOCK: KIM ENG says Eratat Lifestyle recently held its annual Spring/Summer 2011 trade fair to showcase its latest designs to its distributors. Response has been very positive with new products generally able to command higher ASPs. We see a favorable risk-to-reward ratio as the stock is now trading at only 4x FY10 PER, a steep discount to China Hongxing of over 20x.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Some Indicators I used.
I) MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Calculation :
The blue line of the MACD is obtained by substracting the y days exponential moving average from the x days exponential moving average
The red line of the MACD is obtained by calculating a z days exponential moving average of the blue line.
x, y and z are the MACD parameters, typically equal respectively to 12, 26 and 9.
The MACD histogram is obtained by substracting the red line from the blue line.
Interpretation :
MACD is an excellent trend indicator, and partly minimises the delays obtained with the usage of simple moving averages.
There are 2 basic ways to use MACD:
Crossings:
A buy opportunity appears when MACD crosses upwards its signal line.
A sell signal may be triggered when MACD crosses downwards its signal line.
The divergences between the MACD histogram and the price quote identify major reversal points and give strong buy/sell signals.
A bullish divergence occurs when stock prices make new lows while the MACD histogram fails to make new lows.
A bearish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new highs while the MACD histogram fails to make new highs.
The bullish and bearish divergences are more significant when the MACD is in an overbought or oversold level.
The opportunities appearing in longer time horizons (weekly, monthly..) generate larger price movements.
II) Fast/Slow Stochastics
Calculation :
The first parameter is the number of days used to calculate %K, the second is the number of days to be considered for the moving average of %K (generally 1 for Fast Stochastic and 3 or 5 for Slow Stochastic), the third is the number of days to be considered for the moving average of %D.
Interpretation :
It is an overbought/oversold indicator depending on its position relative to the 0 level.
It also gives good divergence signals.
A bullish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new lows while the Stochastic fails to make new lows.
A bearish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new highs while the Stochastic fails to make new highs.
III) RSI
Calculation:
RSI(on n period)=100-100/(1+p) with p=(average of n days up/average of n days down).
Interpretation :
RSI is an overbought / oversold indicator. Buy signals occur generally when crossing the 30 level and sell signals when crossing the 70 level.
RSI is always scaled between 0 and 100.
It also gives good divergence signals.
A bullish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new lows while the RSI fails to make new lows.
A bearish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new highs while the RSI fails to make new highs.
IV) Bollinger Bands
Calculation:
Bollinger bands are envelopes based on a moving average and a standard deviation.
This standard deviation makes bands widen or narrow, according to market volatility. The first parameter is the number of days for the moving average. The second parameter is the standard deviation.
Interpretation :
95% of the prices must be inside the bands if one can presume that prices follow a normal Gaussian distribution (bell curve).
The bands thus constitute strong zones of support and resistance when the market is without clear trend. When the difference between the two envelopes drops after having increased, the trend loses its force.
Calculation :
The blue line of the MACD is obtained by substracting the y days exponential moving average from the x days exponential moving average
The red line of the MACD is obtained by calculating a z days exponential moving average of the blue line.
x, y and z are the MACD parameters, typically equal respectively to 12, 26 and 9.
The MACD histogram is obtained by substracting the red line from the blue line.
Interpretation :
MACD is an excellent trend indicator, and partly minimises the delays obtained with the usage of simple moving averages.
There are 2 basic ways to use MACD:
Crossings:
A buy opportunity appears when MACD crosses upwards its signal line.
A sell signal may be triggered when MACD crosses downwards its signal line.
The divergences between the MACD histogram and the price quote identify major reversal points and give strong buy/sell signals.
A bullish divergence occurs when stock prices make new lows while the MACD histogram fails to make new lows.
A bearish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new highs while the MACD histogram fails to make new highs.
The bullish and bearish divergences are more significant when the MACD is in an overbought or oversold level.
The opportunities appearing in longer time horizons (weekly, monthly..) generate larger price movements.
II) Fast/Slow Stochastics
Calculation :
The first parameter is the number of days used to calculate %K, the second is the number of days to be considered for the moving average of %K (generally 1 for Fast Stochastic and 3 or 5 for Slow Stochastic), the third is the number of days to be considered for the moving average of %D.
Interpretation :
It is an overbought/oversold indicator depending on its position relative to the 0 level.
It also gives good divergence signals.
A bullish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new lows while the Stochastic fails to make new lows.
A bearish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new highs while the Stochastic fails to make new highs.
III) RSI
Calculation:
RSI(on n period)=100-100/(1+p) with p=(average of n days up/average of n days down).
Interpretation :
RSI is an overbought / oversold indicator. Buy signals occur generally when crossing the 30 level and sell signals when crossing the 70 level.
RSI is always scaled between 0 and 100.
It also gives good divergence signals.
A bullish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new lows while the RSI fails to make new lows.
A bearish divergence occurs when the stock price makes new highs while the RSI fails to make new highs.
IV) Bollinger Bands
Calculation:
Bollinger bands are envelopes based on a moving average and a standard deviation.
This standard deviation makes bands widen or narrow, according to market volatility. The first parameter is the number of days for the moving average. The second parameter is the standard deviation.
Interpretation :
95% of the prices must be inside the bands if one can presume that prices follow a normal Gaussian distribution (bell curve).
The bands thus constitute strong zones of support and resistance when the market is without clear trend. When the difference between the two envelopes drops after having increased, the trend loses its force.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Petrobras to sell $65 billion stock in record offer
By Brian Ellsworth
RIO DE JANEIRO
Fri Sep 3, 2010 2:24pm EDT
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Brazilian state oil company Petrobras on Friday filed to sell up to $64.5 billion of new stock -- the largest in capital markets history -- sending its stock sharply higher after months of uncertainty that dragged on its share price.
The global stock offer could be expanded to as much as $74.7 billion if underwriters exercise a "greenshoe" option to sell an additional 564 million shares to meet extraordinary demand as the company raises funds for the world's biggest oil exploration program.
That would easily top the $22.1 billion initial public offering by Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SS) earlier this year, as well as the $36.8 billion share sale by Japanese telecommunications company NTT (9432.T) in 1987.
Despite lingering investor concerns about growing government sway over Petrobras (PBR.N) and the possibility of share dilution, the announcement helped investors regain confidence in a stock that slumped as much as 25 percent this year on uncertainty over the plan.
"It's better to have a tragic end than an unending tragedy," said Marcio Macedo, who oversees about $40 million of assets at Humaita Investimentos in Sao Paulo.
"Investors may not have liked the way they carried out the deal, but this is a world-class asset. There's no way you can't own it."
Petrobras preferred shares were up 4 percent at 28.71 reais in late afternoon trade, near the stock's high for the day.
The company filed to sell 1.59 billion new preferred shares (PETR4.SA) and 2.17 billion new common shares (PETR3.SA). At Thursday's closing prices, it would raise 67.8 billion reais ($39.2 billion) with the common shares sale and 43.8 billion reais ($25.4 billion) from the preferred shares.
The offer includes a $43 billion state-backed swap of oil for shares in which Petrobras will trade new shares for rights to produce 5 billion barrels of offshore oil.
The company faces skepticism from some investors who have questioned the price of $8.51 per barrel for the reserves to be used in the oil-for-shares swap, considerably higher than the $5 to $6 per barrel that analysts said was fair.
Petrobras expects to begin bookbuilding on Friday and price the share sale on September 23.
The plan has become the financial cornerstone of the company's $224 billion, five-year investment plan meant to turn Brazil into a major oil exporter by tapping crude buried deep under the ocean floor in a region known as the subsalt.
Petrobras ranks fifth in oil and gas production among the world's publicly listed oil companies, according to its own figures, with output of 2.53 million barrels of oil equivalent, an amount nearly equal to that of U.S.-based Chevron (CVX.N).
It expects by 2017 that its output will surpass that of Shell (RDSa.L), BP (BP.L), Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron, mostly due to new production from the subsalt wells.
INVESTOR INTEREST
Government leaders have also said they plan to boost the state's participation in Petrobras' capital to around 40 percent from near 30 percent, which has left some investors nervous about greater state sway in the company.
Analysts say the large size of the swap of oil for shares with respect to the entire stock sale -- authorized by shareholders for up to $85 billion -- shows the government expects it will be able to pick up a considerable number of shares not purchased by private investors.
The stock offering will be led by Banco Bradesco (BBDC4.SA) in coordination with Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N), Banco Itau (ITUB4.SA), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), and Banco Santander Brasil. It will also be co-managed by BTG Pactual BTG.UL and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3.SA).
Some investors say the concerns about the government's stake have already been priced in and that the company is still a compelling investment given its unique access to quality oil reserves in a world that is quickly running out of them.
"I'm finally seeing a very clear pathway to the completion of this whole process, and that's a huge positive," said Marc Fogassa, a managing partner at Hedgefort Capital Management, which owns Petrobras shares.
Minority shareholder participation in the offering will be crucial since it will bring in much-needed cash for the company to shore up its balance sheet, stretched by heavy borrowing to finance the ambitious offshore plans.
The government has authorized state banks, including development lender BNDES, to purchase stock that minority shareholders do not subscribe.
Oil for the exchange will come from at least six fields in the subsalt region, most of which are adjacent to major offshore discoveries such as Franco and Tupi finds.
(Additional reporting by Elzio Barreto in Sao Paulo; Editing by Todd Benson and Steve Orlofsky)
RIO DE JANEIRO
Fri Sep 3, 2010 2:24pm EDT
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Brazilian state oil company Petrobras on Friday filed to sell up to $64.5 billion of new stock -- the largest in capital markets history -- sending its stock sharply higher after months of uncertainty that dragged on its share price.
The global stock offer could be expanded to as much as $74.7 billion if underwriters exercise a "greenshoe" option to sell an additional 564 million shares to meet extraordinary demand as the company raises funds for the world's biggest oil exploration program.
That would easily top the $22.1 billion initial public offering by Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SS) earlier this year, as well as the $36.8 billion share sale by Japanese telecommunications company NTT (9432.T) in 1987.
Despite lingering investor concerns about growing government sway over Petrobras (PBR.N) and the possibility of share dilution, the announcement helped investors regain confidence in a stock that slumped as much as 25 percent this year on uncertainty over the plan.
"It's better to have a tragic end than an unending tragedy," said Marcio Macedo, who oversees about $40 million of assets at Humaita Investimentos in Sao Paulo.
"Investors may not have liked the way they carried out the deal, but this is a world-class asset. There's no way you can't own it."
Petrobras preferred shares were up 4 percent at 28.71 reais in late afternoon trade, near the stock's high for the day.
The company filed to sell 1.59 billion new preferred shares (PETR4.SA) and 2.17 billion new common shares (PETR3.SA). At Thursday's closing prices, it would raise 67.8 billion reais ($39.2 billion) with the common shares sale and 43.8 billion reais ($25.4 billion) from the preferred shares.
The offer includes a $43 billion state-backed swap of oil for shares in which Petrobras will trade new shares for rights to produce 5 billion barrels of offshore oil.
The company faces skepticism from some investors who have questioned the price of $8.51 per barrel for the reserves to be used in the oil-for-shares swap, considerably higher than the $5 to $6 per barrel that analysts said was fair.
Petrobras expects to begin bookbuilding on Friday and price the share sale on September 23.
The plan has become the financial cornerstone of the company's $224 billion, five-year investment plan meant to turn Brazil into a major oil exporter by tapping crude buried deep under the ocean floor in a region known as the subsalt.
Petrobras ranks fifth in oil and gas production among the world's publicly listed oil companies, according to its own figures, with output of 2.53 million barrels of oil equivalent, an amount nearly equal to that of U.S.-based Chevron (CVX.N).
It expects by 2017 that its output will surpass that of Shell (RDSa.L), BP (BP.L), Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron, mostly due to new production from the subsalt wells.
INVESTOR INTEREST
Government leaders have also said they plan to boost the state's participation in Petrobras' capital to around 40 percent from near 30 percent, which has left some investors nervous about greater state sway in the company.
Analysts say the large size of the swap of oil for shares with respect to the entire stock sale -- authorized by shareholders for up to $85 billion -- shows the government expects it will be able to pick up a considerable number of shares not purchased by private investors.
The stock offering will be led by Banco Bradesco (BBDC4.SA) in coordination with Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N), Banco Itau (ITUB4.SA), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), and Banco Santander Brasil. It will also be co-managed by BTG Pactual BTG.UL and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3.SA).
Some investors say the concerns about the government's stake have already been priced in and that the company is still a compelling investment given its unique access to quality oil reserves in a world that is quickly running out of them.
"I'm finally seeing a very clear pathway to the completion of this whole process, and that's a huge positive," said Marc Fogassa, a managing partner at Hedgefort Capital Management, which owns Petrobras shares.
Minority shareholder participation in the offering will be crucial since it will bring in much-needed cash for the company to shore up its balance sheet, stretched by heavy borrowing to finance the ambitious offshore plans.
The government has authorized state banks, including development lender BNDES, to purchase stock that minority shareholders do not subscribe.
Oil for the exchange will come from at least six fields in the subsalt region, most of which are adjacent to major offshore discoveries such as Franco and Tupi finds.
(Additional reporting by Elzio Barreto in Sao Paulo; Editing by Todd Benson and Steve Orlofsky)
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